darkskywatcher (darkskywatcher) wrote,

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Election thinking

I get a fair amount of news these days, which relly just means election coverage/predictions.

Well, I've had a few thoughts of my own. I don't think I've posted these here, so here they are. I'm thinking here about the overall result of how the next Congress will look, I don't want to talk about individual races.

The Democrats have all the obvious momentum going into elections. I don't even know what it would take to give Republicans momentum again, they've had just about everything go wrong for them this election season. My best guess would involve a gay sex scandal involving a major democrat. Short of that, I don't really know.

But, overall, I'm not sure the Democrats want to sweep. Unless the fortunes of politics really change in the next two years, I really don't think they want to be in control of the government in name if not in fact. Assuming the problems continue, that might lead the Democrats to be blamed next time around for a mess that they didn't create and that they probably can't solve, especially in the face of an obstinant president.

The economy has shown signs of recovery, but they've been really mixed. The housing bubble is collapsing, and some of the big firms been turning in bad results for several quarters now. Then there's that deficit, the thing nobody is really talking about because nobody's sure what the hell to do about it. That, at least, isn't going to be gone in two years.

That said, I do think it would be great if the Democrats got control of the Senate. Sure, it means they are sharing in the blame somewhat, but having the senate now should allow them to build a strong majority in that chamber in the future. And a strong democratic Senate (ie one that can stop a filibuster threat) would cause a nightmare for any parts of the government that the republicans wind up in control of.

As far as the House is concerned, I think that they can wait. While it will be a different picture in two years (as presidential candidates have strong influence on how their party performs in congressional races), I still think the climate will probably favor the democrats, especially if they pick a good candidate. Assuming the climate is similar, they republican candidates that are on the rocks now are going to be on the rocks in another two years. In that scenario, they could still pick up a bunch of contested seats, annd maybe walk off in firm control of two branches of government.

I think that's all for now.


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